Mitrofanova I.V., Ivanova T.B., Yurchenko K.G. Adjustments and  Interrelations: Strategy Analysis of Socio-Economic Development of Volgograd Region Until 2030








 Inna V. Mitrofanova

	 Federal Research Centre the Southern Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation; 




	Volgograd State University, Volgograd, Russian Federation

 Tatiana B. Ivanova

	 Volgograd Institute of Management, Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Volgograd, Russian Federation;

	 Volgograd State Technical University, Volgograd, Russian Federation

 Karine G. Yurchenko

	 Volgograd State University, Volgograd, Russian Federation;

	 Chamber of Control and Accounts of the Volgograd Region, Volgograd, Russian Federation





 Abstract. The article analyzes the revisions of the Strategies for socio-economic development of the Volgograd region (hereinafter referred to as the Strategy) until 2030. The relevance and novelty of the study are as follows: an analysis of adjustments to the Strategy in the 2023 edition compared to the 2021 edition, as well as the identification of explicit and indirect relationships between its key indicators. The research methodology is Keynesianism and Neoclassicism. Methodological tools include comparative and correlational analysis and the formation of a cognitive map. The key indicators of the Strategy were analyzed, i.e., GRP, index of physical volume of investments in fixed assets, investments in fixed assets, number of employees, unemployment rate, consumer price index, real wages of employees of organizations, index of physical volume of retail trade turnover, retail trade turnover, nominal accrued wages, and demographic load factor (per 1,000 persons of working age). There are also indicators present in both editions. The following adjustments to the Social and Economic Development Strategy of the Volgograd Region in 2023 were identified: 1) qualitative ones due to the improvement of the legal system, 2) quantitative ones due to the replacement of previously specified planned values with actually achieved values. Most of the planned targets were achieved. The conclusion is drawn about generally positive regional changes. To clarify the reasons for the uneven performance of indicators, a cognitive map of Strategy was formed, which provides characteristics of the relationships between indicators. Based on correlation analysis, the integral characteristic of economic development is GRP, and as for social development, it is the dependency ratio. The main part of the relationships between key indicators corresponds to the provisions of economic theory. Indicators for which there is no standard connection are presented. This phenomenon is explained by the authors as the effect of the digital economy. The article suggests measures for further adjustments, taking into account the relationships between Strategy indicators.








 Key words: strategies of socio-economic development, results of 2022, results of 2023, Volgograd region, cognitive map, digital economy.




	Citation. Mitrofanova I.V., Ivanova T.B., Yurchenko K.G., 2024. Adjustments and Interrelations: Strategy Analysis of Socio-Economic Development of Volgograd Region Until 2030. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Yug Rossii [Regional Economy. South of Russia], vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 64-75. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/re.volsu.2024.1.7




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