Sushchiy S.Ya. Demographic potential and national structure of the Crimean population: end of the XX – the middle of the XXI century
Sergey Yakovlevich Sushchiy
Doctor of Philosophic Sciences, Leading Researcher, Federal Research Center Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
SS7707@mail.ru
Prosp. Chekhova, 41, 344006 Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
Abstract. The article explores the demographic potential of the Crimea in the post-Soviet period. The author analyzes the dynamics of the population and the national structure of the Peninsula during the “Ukrainian period” (1990-2000s) and after the inclusion of the Crimea into the Russian Federation. Possible scenarios of the natural dynamics of the population of the peninsula up to 2035 and 2055 are presented. The calculations show the inevitability of the natural decline in the population of the Crimea in the coming decades. However, a significant part of this decline in 2020-2030 will be offset by the influx of migrants. In the long run the scale of depopulation may increase and by the middle of the XXI century the population of the Peninsula is able to decrease to 1.9-2.2 million people. But if the reduction in the demographic potential of Crimea by 2050-2055 is almost inevitable, so the corridor of the possibilities of this process remains very wide. Changes in the national structure of the Peninsula’s population will be primarily associated with a significant reduction in the number of Ukrainians in the Crimea. In the medium term Ukrainians will give up to the Crimean Tatars the second position in the demographic ranking of the peoples of the region. The share of Crimean Tatars in the population of Crimea for 2015–2055 can grow from 11.5 % to 15.1-16.3 %. But this growth will not affect the demographic dominance of Russians. By the middle of the century they will make 63-64 % of the population of the peninsula. This estimate is made without taking into account the migration factor. But Crimea for the long-term perspective will remain as an attractive region for new migrants from all over Russia. Given the national structure of the country’s population the Russians will form the bulk of these migrants.
Key words: demographic potential of the Crimea, population size, national structure, natural decline, migration activity, ethnic communities, settlement system, demographic forecast.
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