Sushchiy S.Ya. Geodemographic dynamics of the Krasnodar region: realities and prospects for the first half of the XXI century
Sergey Yakovlevich Sushchiy
Doctor of Philosophic Sciences, Leading Researcher, Federal Research Center of the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences
prosp. Chekhova, 41, 344006 Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation
Abstract. The article examines the modern demographic potential of the Krasnodar region, population dynamics and migration activity in some decades of the post-Soviet period; highlights the central role of the migration inflow in the sustainable growth of the demographic potential of the Kuban. Two zones have been identified within the region. The area of demographic growth includes coastal territories, Krasnodar and areas located between the regional capital and the Black Sea coast. Almost the entire North, East and South-East of the region (socio-economic periphery) are in the depopulation zone. The areas mentioned above have the maximal attractiveness for both migrants within the Krasnodar krai and also the migrants from other regions of Russia and near abroad. Practically all the north, east and south east of the region (its social and economic periphery) are located in the zone of depopulation. This territorial division has been stable for 10–15 years and is likely to continue in the future. The possible scenarios of the population dynamics of the Krasnodar region till 2030 and 2050 are presented. The calculations carried out made it possible to conclude that the demographic potential of the region would increase by 2030 to 5.8–6.0 million people. The migration will play a central role in this process. By 2040 the population of the region is likely to reach its maximum size and in the future will begin to decline. But if the migration influx continues at a high level the demographic growth will continue until the middle of the century (in 2050, 6.5–6.7 million people will live in the province). The share of the Krasnodar region in the population of the Southern federal district (from 40 % to 47–48 %) and the whole of Russia (from 3.9 % to 4.5–4.7 %) will continue to grow.
Key words: demographic dynamics, natural population decline, migration activity, population of the Krasnodar region, system of resettlement, urbanization, demographic forecast.
ATTACHMENTS: /5_Sushchiy.pmd.pdf