Borshch L.M. Application of econometric modeling to the estimation of the volume of insurance market of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol
Lyudmila Mikhaylovnа Borshch
Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Finance of Enterprises and Insurance, Institute of Economics and Management, Crimean Federal University named after V.I. Vernadskiy
Sevastopolskaya St., 21/4, 295015 Simferopol, Russian Federation
Abstract. The article examines the insurance market using the methodology of econometric modeling in order to obtain an adequate estimate of the potential volume of the insurance market (insurance premium) of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, which in modern conditions is an important and relevant scientific and practical problem. The studies are based on factors (economic values, demographic, socio-economic characteristics) that significantly affect the total amount of all insurance premiums. A sample of approximately similar regions is formed and basing on them an econometric model is constructed. The forecasted value of such indicator as the total potentially collected insurance premiums for the year was calculated. The statistical regularities that reveal and describe this indicator are shown, the sequence of steps is determined, the factors of influence on the amount of insurance premiums collected in each investigated region of the Russian Federation are determined. The samples of statistical data have been generated that have similar characteristics of the region under study, and on their basis an econometric model has been constructed. The forms of the relationship between model variables are defined, relying on the notions of relationships existing between them on the basis of already known interdependencies and processes taking place in the Russian and world economy. An econometric model is constructed in which the dependent variables that compose the total insurance premiums collected in the regions studied for the year are determined and the independent variables that make up the social and economic factors. The study excluded statistically insignificant factors of influence until the dependent one is described only by statistically significant factors. The verification of the final model for compliance with quality requirements for econometric models has been carried out. This econometric method of research has made it possible to solve the problem of quantifying the potential of the insurance market in Crimea in order to attract investments in this sector in the best way. The investigation of the influence of factors such as: population size, level of the gross regional product and other factors on the total amount collected for the year of insurance premiums for the studied regions may in the future allow assessing the dependence of the total amount of insurance premiums. The fulfillment of the assigned tasks of the conducted research allowed using econometric methods and making quantitative estimates of potential insurance premiums, attracting potential investors for this type of activity.
Key words: econometric modeling, investment potential, gross regional product, influence factors, quantitative assessments, potential, quantitative potential, socio-economic factors, insurance market, model verification.
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