Tverdokhlebov N.I. Analysis of social indicators of the “Strategy for social and economic development of the Crimean Republic until 2030”

Nikolay Ivanovich Tverdokhlebov 

Candidate of Historical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Sustainable Development Management, V.I. Vernadsky Crimean Federal University 

tverdohlebov-nikolay@rambler.ru 

Prosp. Vernadskogo, 4, 295007 Simferopol, Russian Federation 

Abstract. In the article social aspects of regional strategic planning are considered on the example of “Strategy of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Crimea until 2030”. The inconsistency in determining the strategic goal, as well as the shortcomings in the proposed scenarios, is revealed. A comparative analysis of the social development of the Republic of Crimea as a subject of the Russian Federation and the Southern Federal District is given. The dynamics of sociodemographic indicators in 2015-2017 is estimated and prospects of achievement of planned indicators for 2020 are determined. Of the ten indicators, four (total natural increase/loss ratio of population, birth rate, mortality and life expectancy) show a clear negative trend, and in 2020 may be worse than in 2015. The population of the Republic of Crimea and the GRP per capita will not reach the levels planned for 2020, and in the next few years there will remain a significant gap in this most important indicator from the all-Russian and the middle level in the Southern Federal District. Infant mortality and unemployment in 2016 reached the level determined for 2026, which again indicates a low level of social planning. The conditional nature of many indicators does not allow to maintain their strict statistical records, which makes impossible to draw a conclusion about the reality of their achievement. All of the above shortcomings in strategic social planning make it very difficult to achieve the goal of a full transition in 2017-2010 to program-target management and the beginning of the implementation of the project approach outlined in the Strategy. It remains to be hoped that many shortcomings will be corrected when drawing up an action plan and state programs within the framework of the Strategy implementation. 

Key words: the Republic of Crimea, regional strategic planning, social indicators, total natural increase / loss ratio of population, birth rate, mortality, life expectancy, infant mortality, unemployment rate, labor market tension factor, gross regional product per capita.