Sushchij S.Ya. Forecast of demographic capacity of the Rostov region in the first half of the XXI century

Sergej Yakovlevich Sushchij
Doctor of Philosophy Sciences, Leading Scientific Researcher, Institute of the Social, Economic and Humanitarian Researches, Southern Scientific Center of RAS
SS7707@mail.ru
Prosp. Chekhova, 41, 344006 Rostov-on-don, Russian Federation

Abstract. In the article the contemporary demographic potential of the Rostov region is studied. The possible variants of scenarios of the regional population number dynamics till 2030 and 2050 are presented. The calculations were made for the region in the whole and also for all its large cities and village administrative districts. The calculations made allowed drawing the conclusion about the inevitable reduction of the population number of the region. The central role in the given process has the natural population decline. However in the nearest and even in the middle term period the demographic losses can be considerably limited (during the period 2010–2030 they can make up 4–5 % from the total population number of the year 2010). In the nearest future with a high probability the pace of the population decline of the region will grow. In 2031–2050 the population drop can make up 350–700 thousand people. In the middle of the XXI century the population of the region will reduce to 3,2–3,9 million people or will be 8–25 % lower than in year 2010. The most considerable part of village territories in the nearest future will be characterized by enlarged rated of the depopulation as a result of the combination of the natural population decline and the out migration both to the cities of the region and also beyond the region. At the negative scenario of the demographic dynamics the northern territories of the region and a part of its southern areas will lose by 2050 20–30 % of its population. Maximally the Rostov agglomeration (the cities of Rostov, Bataysk, Novocherkassk) will benefit from the inter regional migration that will allow replacing completely or partially the decline of its population due to the inflow of the people and at the positive demographic situation the Rostov agglomeration will help keep its contemporary number till the middle of the century. As a result a further demographic polarization of the regional space will take place. By the middle of the XXI century in the south west of the region up to 60 % of the population will live there.

Key words: population number, national structure, demographic dynamics, natural decline, migration activity, demographic forecast.

ATTACHMENTS:  /5_Sushiy.pmd.pdf