Vasilyeva D.A. Import Substitution in the Russian High-Tech Sector: a New Development Paradigm in the Context of Structural Shocks

Daria A.   Vasilyeva
Southern Federal University, Rostov-on-Don, Russian Federation

Abstract. This study analyzes accelerated import substitution as a new development model for the high-tech sector of the Russian economy, implemented under conditions of structural shocks and the priority of technological sovereignty achievement. The aim is to identify the essential characteristics of this paradigm and its differences from previous approaches and to development practical recommendations for the formation of an effective import substitution policy. The research is based on a comprehensive methodology integrating theoretical-conceptual, historical-economic, structural-functional, and comparative analyses. The study introduces and tests an integral index of accelerated import substitution. For the microelectronics industry, calculations show that the index equals 0.57, which indicates an average efficiency level. A significant structural imbalance is revealed: the institutional (0.68) and economic (0.635) spheres show advanced dynamics, while the technological component (0.40) lags considerably. This suggests that large-scale administrative and financial measures did not pass comparable growth in innovation activity or the creation of breakthrough competencies. The findings confirm the  viability of the suggested integral index as a tool for comprehensive diagnostics of accelerated import substitution processes. The identified imbalance shows the need to shift the focus of government support from direct product substitution to stimulating science-industry cooperation and fostering national technological cores. The use of quantitative assessment methods is critical for sectoral strategies adjustment and minimization of the risks of perpetuating technological backwardness.

Key words: high-tech economic sector, technological sovereignty, digital transformation of industry, accelerated import substitution, innovative localization, research ecosystem.
Citation. Vasilyeva D.A., 2026. Import Substitution in the Russian High-Tech Sector: A New Development Paradigm in the Context of Structural Shocks. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Yug Rossii [Regional Economy. South of Russia], vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 49-61. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/re.volsu.2026.2.5

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