Tikhomirov K.Yu. Prospect of Export Potential Disclosure of Agricultural and Industrial Complex of the South of Russia in Modern Conditions of World Wheat Market Development

Kirill  Yu.  Tikhomirov
Peoples Friendship University of Russia named after Patrice Lumumba, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract. The article is devoted to establishment of course-and-effect relationships between changes in the export potential of the agro-industrial complex of the South of Russia depending on foreign economic activity, as well as forecasting the growth and of the potential disclosure in the world wheat market. For this purpose, a regression and trend analysis of statistics for the regions of the Southern Federal District of the Russian Federation for 2020–2022 was carried out. As a result, an econometric model of foreign economic activity of the agro-industrial complex of the South of Russia was compiled, which showed that foreign economic activity plays a key role in the export’s formation potential of industrial agriculture enterprises. Based on the model, it is substantiated that in the agro-industrial complex of the South of Russia, the export potential (grain yield and gross grain harvest) is 71.35% determined by the import of agricultural products, and the economic activity and efficiency of enterprises (their balanced financial, profitability and number of employees) are 70.56% determined by their export potential. A forecast was made for export potential disclosure of the agro-industrial complex of the South of Russia in the world wheat market until 2027, proving the need to maintain current trends in foreign trade in food products and agricultural raw materials in the interests of Russian wheat exporters. The theoretical significance of results consists in the substantiation of the prospects for export potential disclosure of the agro-industrial complex of the South of Russia in the modern conditions of the world wheat market through the increase in foreign economic activity of Russian wheat producers. The author’s conclusions have practical significance, allowing adapting the model of activities organization of the agro-industrial complex of the South of Russia to the modern context of the world wheat market, for which it is recommended to provide favorable conditions for the development of both export and import.
Key words: world wheat market, agro-industrial complex (AIC), South of Russia, export potential, foreign economic activity, import, wheat export, sanctions crisis, Industrial agriculture enterprises.
Citation. Tikhomirov K.Yu., 2025. Prospect of Export Potential Disclosure of Agricultural and Industrial Complex of the South of Russia in Modern Conditions of World Wheat Market Development. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Yug Rossii [Regional Economy. South of Russia], vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 183-189. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/re.volsu.2025.1.18

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