Roslyakova N.A., Dorofeeva L.V. The New Great Depression in the Context of Coronavirus Pandemic: A Test of Keynesian Theory for Russian Regions

Natalia А. Roslyakova
Institute of Control Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation

Lyudmila V. Dorofeeva
North-West Institute of Management, Branch of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation

Abstract. J.M. Keynes is the author of the economic model which made it possible to overcome the Great Depression in the United States. The cornerstone of the theory is income. The regulatory measures of J.M. Keynes start from the fact that the behavior of the population in the long and short term is different. Using the data on the income of the population in the regions of Russia before the crisis and during crisis periods (caused by the coronavirus pandemic) of 2018–2020, the authors test a hypothesis connected with the transformation of behavior models. In particular, the issue of changes in the proportions of savings and consumption of the population in the regions of Russia was studied. To confirm the hypothesis defined in the study, the clustering of regions was carried out, which allows us to draw conclusions about the isolation of more homogeneous groups of regions. The identified five clusters allow us to fully determine the main trends of consumer behavior and confirm the hypothesis set in the study. The results obtained allow us to speak about the relevance of the application of J.M. Keynes’ approaches to this crisis situation. It is also important to speak about the possibility of further research of the policy proposed at the moment which deals with the issues facing the global economy. The calculation of the ratio of the marginal and average consumption rate makes it possible to use the tools of the US economic policy of the early 20 th century in the modern social and economic reality. Using this research, the trends were identified and new threats associated with the virtualization of the economy were identified, which can become a kind of a trigger for a new Great Depression. The most important tasks at the moment are a deep fundamental study and description of the patterns of development of regional economic systems of various types and an analysis of the impact of various negative factors and shocks on their dynamics.

Key words: regions of Russia, coronavirus, clustering, consumer models, socio-economic trends, socio-economic transformations, population income, saving.

Citation. Roslyakova N.A., Dorofeeva L.V., 2021. The New Great Depression in the Context of Coronavirus Pandemic: A Test of Keynesian Theory for Russian Regions. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Yug Rossii [Regional Economy. South of Russia], vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 26-36. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/re.volsu.2021.4.3

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