Manaeva I.V. Analysis of the Operation of Gibrat’s Law in Cities of Russia

Belgorod State National Research University, Belgorod, Russian Federation

Abstract. Foreign researchers are testing Gibrat’s law on the example of firms, regions and countries. The importance of empirical confirmation of this law lies in the fact that it allows us to determine whether the population of a city, region or country as a whole has a common growth path and whether there is single size dependence between them. The relevance of this study is determined by the need to expand the indicators to assess the growth of cities using Gibrat’s law in modern Russian conditions. The purpose of the article is to analyze the feasibility of Gibrat’s law in Russian cities by indicators: population of the city, population density in the city, average annual number of employees in enterprises in the city, average monthly wage in the city, number of enterprises and organizations in the city, as well as to determine the
appropriateness of using this law for urban systems of Russia. In the Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts (2009–2016), in the North-Western, Volga, Siberian and Far Eastern federal districts (2016–2018), the growth rate of cities does not depend on their initial size. Gibrat’s law was confirmed for the following indicators: population density in a city in 2009–2016 in the Siberian Federal District, in 2016–2018 in all federal districts, except for the North Caucasian Federal District; average annual number of employees in a city in the Southern (2003–2009, 2009–2016), Ural (2009–2016), Siberian (2009–2016), Northwestern (2016–2018), North Caucasian (2016–2018) and Far Eastern (2016–2018) federal districts; average monthly salary in the cities of the Siberian Federal District (2009–2016), in the Central, Northwestern and Ural Federal Districts (2016–2018); number of enterprises and organizations in the city in the Southern Federal District (2009–2016), in the North Caucasian, Volga, Ural and Siberian federal districts (2016–2018).

Key words: spatial economy, urban growth, Gibrat’s law, federal district, population, population density, average annual number of employees, average monthly wage, number of enterprises and organizations, cities of Russia.

Citation. Manaeva I.V., 2020. Analysis of the Operation of Gibrat’s Law in Cities of Russia. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Yug Rossii [Regional Economy. South of Russia], vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 49-66. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/re.volsu.2020.3.5

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