Klimanov V.V., Vardanyan V.Sh. Forecasts of Russian Regions in the Conditions of Economic Sanctions

Vladimir V. Klimanov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russian Federation; Institute for Public Finance Refunding, Moscow, Russian Federation

Vardan Sh. Vardanyan

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract. The purpose of this article is to study the dependence of the impact of international economic sanctions in the forecasts of entities of the Russian Federation on their economic characteristics. The international sanctions which were introduced by foreign states for the Russian Federation have a significant impact on regional economy. In the present circumstances regional economic forecasts should take into account the specificity, condition and possible threats of the external economic environment. The current regional documents of economic forecasting are a stable basis for regional strategies which in their turn ensure the implementation of integrated social and economic planning.
The authors conduct the analysis of the way how economic sanctions are taken into account in regional forecasts.
The researchers study namely forecasts of social and economic development of the Russian Federation entities for long term and short term periods and budget forecasts for a long term period as well. The paper analyzes legal acts and methodological documents for the development and approval of these documents. The authors compile regional ratings according to the following indicators: amount of foreign direct investments; export of goods; volume of shipped goods, work performed by domestic manufacturing industries; average rating positions.
The researchers provide an assessment of the way the sanctions are taken into account in the documents according to the suggested variants: the sanctions are not taken into account and are not reflected in the documents; the sanctions are mentioned in the forecast and are taken into account; the impact from the sanctions is taken into account and the response of Russia is shown. On the basis of the analysis the authors make conclusions on the impact of regional economic performance on mentioning foreign economic sanctions in the corresponding economic forecasts. The paper shows that the inclusion of the influence of economic sanctions in the mentioned strategic documents depends on the quality of the documents under analysis and their inclusion into the strategic documents has a random nature.

Key words: forecast of the region, strategic planning, economic sanctions, socio-economic development, economic indicators of the region.

Citation. Klimanov V.V., Vardanyan V.Sh., 2019. Forecasts of Russian Regions in the Сonditions of Economic Sanctions. Regionalnaya ekonomika. Yug Rossii [Regional Economy. South of Russia], vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 25-33. (in Russian). DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/re.volsu.2019.3.3

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